Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

Wayne L. Winston

PUBLISHED BY Microsoft Press A Division of Microsoft Corporation One Microsoft Way Redmond, Washington 98052-6399

Copyright © 2004 by Wayne Winston

All rights reserved. No part of the contents of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Winston, Wayne L.

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling/ Wayne Winston. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-7356-1901-8 1. Industrial management--Statistical methods--Computer programs. 2. Decision making--Computer programs. 3. Microsoft Excel (Computer file) I. Title.

HD30.215.W56 2004 005.54--dc22 2003064860

Printed and bound in the United States of America.

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Acquisitions Editor: Alex Blanton
Project Editors: Jean Trenary and Kristine Haugseth
Technical Editor: John Pierce
Indexer: Liz Cunningham

Body Part No. X10-21791

About the Author

Wayne L. Winston is a professor of decision sciences at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. He has earned MBA teaching awards for 18 consecutive years and regularly teaches business analysts how to use Microsoft Excel to make better decisions. Wayne also consults for several Fortune 500 clients, including Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; Cisco Systems, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; Ford Motor Company; General Motors Corporation; Intel Corporation; Microsoft Corporation; NCR Corporation; Owens Corning; Pfizer, Inc.; Proctor & Gamble; the U.S. Army; and the U.S. Department of Defense. He and business partner Jeff Sagarin developed the statistics tracking and rating system used by the Dallas Mavericks professional basketball team. Wayne is also a two time Jeopardy! Champion.

Acknowledgments

I'm eternally grateful to Jennifer Skoog and Norm Tonina, who had faith in me and first hired me to teach Excel classes for Microsoft finance. Jennifer in particular was instrumental in helping me design the content and style of the classes on which this book is based. Keith Lange of Eli Lilly and Company, Pat Keating and Doug Hoppe of Cisco Systems, Inc., and Dennis Fuller of the U.S. Army also helped me refine my thoughts on teaching data analysis and modeling with Excel.

I am grateful to my many students at the organizations where I've taught and at the Kelley School of Business. Many of them have taught me things I did not know about Excel.

Alex Blanton of Microsoft Press championed the project and shared my vision of developing a user-friendly text designed for use by working business analysts. An author could not ask for a better editor than John Pierce. He unfailingly corrected my grammatical shortcomings and did not hesitate to make necessary changes. Microsoft Press did a great job with the production process and made writing a book as painless as possible.

Finally, my wonderful family put up with my long absences during the year in which the book was written. My lovely and talented wife, Vivian, is always patient and inspiring. My daughter, Jennifer, and son, Gregory, inspired many of the book's examples. Even our dog, Honey, helped by barking less when she saw I was working!